By BENITA KELSALL
AUSTRALIA is facing the El Nino climate pattern which will have the potential to bring average to below average rainfall and warmer temperatures.
While El Nino increases the odds of a drier spring, it does not guarantee it.
There is still some chance of an average or a wetter winter and spring however there is less chance of this happening.
Other features associated with an El Nino event include above average daytime temperatures over southern Australia and clearer nights and the potential for a longer frost season.
Another implication of El Nino could be lower stream flows which can be experienced due to less rainfall and more heat which will dry out soils.
According to the Bureau of Meteorology, it is important to note that no two El Nino events are the same in their duration or intensity.
Most events can have minimal impacts while others can create severe droughts and bushfires.
Despite such differences, Dale Grey from DEDJTR suggests that the long-term odds for a drier than average season increase during an El Nino event from a 33 per cent chance to a 70 per cent chance.
“This year is the one to have a contingency plan in place ready if a drier season does eventuate,“ he said.
Mr Grey also noted that East Gippsland is one location where the effect of El Nino is less reliable.
There are a number of tools available to help with understanding forecasts as winter deepens including the Monthly Fast Break newsletter which provides a consensus forecast based on 11 models.
Subscribe to the.break@ecodev.vic.gov.au to receive monthly updates.
The Bureau of Meteorology website can help farmers to make more informed short term decisions over the next few days, as well as set longer term forecasts.
The ENSO wrap is often a good place to start for longer term outlooks at www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso.
– Benita Kelsall is an extension officer for the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources
