Gembrook
IF THE Liberal Party loses Gembrook then the landslide will well and truly be on.
Incumbent Brad Battin is tipped to hold the seat, although his Labor opponent Collin Ross should not be underestimated.
Both men are well known in the local community, both have the support of the party faithful, and both have been running vigorous campaigns.
The bookies have Mr Battin at $1.14 to hold the seat that he took from Tammy Lobato in 2010 with a 7.35 per cent swing.
While the seat was in Labor hands only four years ago, a redistribution has shored up the Battin camp, adding an estimated 2 per cent to his existing margin of 6.75 per cent.
The redistribution saw Gembrook lose 3521 Pakenham electors to Bass District, 11,025 voters to Eildon District, including the towns of Gladysdale, Hoddles Creek, Launching Place, McMahons Creek, Millgrove, Powelltown, Reefton, Warburton, Warburton East, Wesburn, Woori Yallock and Yarra Junction.
More than 5400 electors from Belgrave Heights, Belgrave South and Narre Warren East, Belgrave, Lysterfield and Selby have been moved into the seat of Monbulk.
To compensate for the losses, the Victorian Electoral Commission has decided that 7148 Pakenham and Officer voters will now vote in Gembrook instead of Bass, while 5091 electors from Narre Warren North District (parts of Berwick and Harkaway) will also vote in Gembrook.
Another 1837 Berwick residents will move from Narre Warren South to Gembrook.
Victoria has become a volatile electorate in recent years and the hills have traditionally been more hard to predict than most.
While Brad Battin should be returned, it is a safe bet that he will be knocking on every door and handing out every leaflet he can until 6pm on 29 November.
This seat may be a closer contest than the pollsters predict.
Two-party preferred vote, 2010 state election:
ALP: 16,707, 43.25%
Liberal: 21,926, 56.75%
The Field (in ballot paper order):
Damian Heffernan, Independent
Colin Ross, ALP
Simon Beard, Australian Christians
Frank Dean, Independent
Alan Stoops, Australian Country Alliance
Ferdie Verdan, Rise Up Australia Party
Brad Battin, Liberal
