With final fields declared in the 2014 Victorian election, the Gazette looks at the lay of the land and the likely outcomes from the three seats where Gazette readers will be casting votes.
Bass
KEN Smith’s retirement after holding the seat since 2012 should have opened up opportunities for Labor or independents to make a contest of Bass.
Instead, the seat looks safer than ever for the Coalition with the Liberals selecting a strong candidate, Labor taking a big risk on its candidate and no likely surprise challenge from an independent.
While the pundits and pollsters have Labor the warm favourite to reclaim power from the Coalition after just one term, the bookies have Brian Paynter as a $1.02 certainty to hold Bass for the Liberals.
The latest redistribution doesn’t seem to favoured one party or the other too much. Parts of Officer and Pakenham were lost to Gembrook while other parts of Pakenham were gained from the hills seat.
The country votes from Nar Nar Goon to Bunyip have been lost to the Narracan electorate while 3715 voters from Berwick will now cast their ballot in Narre Warren South.
More than 300 voters from Clyde will now vote in Bass rather than Hastings.
From the first moment of the campaign this has looked like an easy Coalition win.
Mr Paynter is a strong local candidate running in a traditionally conservative seat. Labor was hoping well-known local footballer Ben Soumilas would run a competitive campaign but his decision not to run left it without a home-grown option.
Instead, a western suburbs car salesman in Sanjay Nathan was drafted in at the last minute.
Independent Clare Le Serve may attract some interest as an independent but her votes will mostly likely come from the municipality of Bass Coast where she is currently a councillor.
Last time:
Two-party preferred vote, 2010 state election:
ALP: 16,622, 37.42%
Liberal: 27,804, 62.58%
The Field (in ballot paper order):
Ross Fairhurst, Greens
Clare Le Serve, Independent
Paul Reid, Australian Christians
Brian Paynter, Liberal
Angela Dorian, Rise Up Australia Party
Sanjay Nathan, ALP
David Amor, Australian Country Alliance
